Scenarios for Violence in the Resource-rich Cabo Delgado Province

The government of Mozambique has a rapidly shrinking window within which to implement a more comprehensive and effective strategy to weaken the Ahlu Sunna wa Jama (ASWJ) insurgents in Cabo Delgado and prevent the group from becoming an entrenched, long-term security problem. This report projects that the security situation in Cabo Delgado will most likely deteriorate during the next 18 months if the ASWJ insurgency continues to recruit new fighters and maintains a high frequency of attacks, as they have done since October 2017. Another key destabilizing factor is a government response that prioritizes military action over community development programs as its primary line of effort against the group. The government’s heavy-handed counterinsurgency approach risks further alienating the local population, driving them to lend active and passive aid to the militants. While the complete pacification of the group is unlikely during the next 18 months, a concerted whole-of-government approach would help undercut the group’s momentum. This includes outreach to the local community, programs, and policies designed to address specific grievances, and the use of targeted military operations. Maputo’s partners in the international community and private sector also have an important role to play. They can leverage their political influence and financial resources to press the Mozambican government to shift its current approach toward one that addresses the underlying grievances driving the insurgency. In doing so, Maputo and its partners have a better opportunity to not only undercut the present violence but potentially prevent future armed groups from emerging.