The Mozambique Conflict and Deteriorating Security Situation

For almost three years, the ISIS-affiliated extremist group Ansar al-Sunna has spearheaded an insurgency in Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado. In recent months the situation in Cabo Delgado has deteriorated significantly and violent attacks are now frequent. Militants have begun to target military positions having previously focused on civilian targets. It is a sign that the group is growing in resilience, operational capacity and confidence. From its first few attacks in Mocimboa de Praia in late 2017, the group now launches more than 20 attacks every month in an insurgency that covers nine major towns and districts along the Cabo Delgado coast. A battle for the town of Macomia at the end of May demonstrates the group’s organisational capacity and ambition as well as an escalation in the government’s counter-offensive efforts. On 30 May 2020, government forces engaged Ansar al-Sunna militants in one of the largest counter-terrorism operations to date, resulting in the reported deaths of 78 insurgents, including two of the group’s leaders. The extent to which this will impact Ansar al-Sunna’s operations and long-term ambitions remains to be understood.