Unpacking the Potential Socioeconomic Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic in Mozambique: A United Nations Situation Analysis and Policy Recommendations

The Coronavirus pandemic arrives in Mozambique at a time when, after several years of modest economic performance, the Mozambican economy was starting to show signs of recovery. Hence, the latest projections of the IMF of November 2019 had the Mozambican economy growing at 6% in 2020, with medium term projections reaching 9% and above after 2023, following the initiation of LNG exploration operations in the north of the country. Despite this improving macroeconomic outlook prior to the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic, living conditions for many Mozambicans remain harsh. Poverty afflicts almost half of the population, 46.1% according to the 2014/15 national household survey, and many people continue without access to basic services, with the proportion of Mozambicans with access to basic water supply, basic sanitation and electricity remaining at very low levels: 55.7%, 29.4% and 27.4% in 2017, respectively. Moreover, despite improvements in healthcare conditions, Mozambicans, especially women and children, continue to be severely afflicted by disease and sickness. In general, living conditions tend to be worse in rural than in urban parts of the country. The coronavirus pandemic is almost certainly going to change this short- and medium-term economic outlook and could potentially have a very significant socioeconomic impact in Mozambique. However, while all available evidence points in this direction, at this stage it is difficult to ascertain and quantify the extent of this impact, given the speed at which things are changing around the world and the uncertainly surrounding the epidemiological profile of the Coronavirus, which makes it hard to assess how long the containment and lockdown measures being applied around the world will need to remain in place. While a detailed quantification of the socioeconomic impact of the coronavirus pandemic may not be feasible, it is still useful to identify possible transmission channels through which the pandemic may affect the Mozambican economy and society. It is also useful to identify key issues that are likely shape shortand medium-term socioeconomic prospects in Mozambique as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic outbreak in Mozambique. The following sections outline some of these.