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In mid-1998, a World Bank study grimly noted that "Indonesia is in deep economic crisis. A country that achieved decades of rapid growth, stability, and poverty reduction is now near economic collapse . . . no country in recent history, let alone one the size of Indonesia, has ever suffered such a dramatic reversal of fortune." There is bitter irony in Indonesia's fall from grace. Long hailed as a model of successful economic development, it was widely predicted to escape the fate of Thailand. Between June-August 1997, as Thailand's economy unraveled and the virulent Asian flu sent shock waves through the region, the Indonesian economy remained relatively stable—a veritable rock in the stormy sea. Even the World Bank remained upbeat about the short-term outlook, believing that a widening of the intervention band would be sufficient to ward off contagion.4 The Indonesian government, which received much praise for its swift and decisive response to the crisis, went to great lengths to assure jittery investors "that Indonesia was not Thailand." Then the unthinkable happened. Indonesia suddenly succumbed to the contagion, and, measured by the magnitude of currency depreciation and contraction of economic activity, it emerged as the most serious casualty of Asia's financial crisis. What happened? Why did Indonesia (and the other high-performing Asian economies) collapse like hollow dominoes? In the numerous post-mortems that have followed, analysts have identified a number of related factors behind the region's dramatic reversal of fortune. In the case of Indonesia, the variable that soon acquired particular salience was "crony capitalism." Initially popularized by the Economist, the term quickly took a life of its own. Soon thereafter, the distinguished MIT economist, Paul Krugman, would argue that crony capitalism lay the root of Indonesia's—and indeed, East Asia's—financial woes. Krugman describes the innerworkings and manifestations of the insidious crony capitalism in evocative prose.

Number: 71 Publisher: Southeast Asia Program Publications at Cornell University